Quote:
Originally Posted by delfman
so what is it that jeff p said which you consider a fact?
that according to his data a 2-1 shot in a 6 horse field has the exact same chance to win as a 2-1 shot in a 12 horse field. 
and BTW, who asked you anyways? are you jeff p's sex slave or something? |
I really can't top Ranchwest's comment (actually laughed out loud at that one), but I will add that the winning percentages make more sense if you think about odds distribution in actual races.
A 2-1 shot in a 6-horse field is likely (not always, but likely) not even the race favorite, unless it's a field where everyone is single-digit odds. In a 6-horse field, if you've got some horses over 10-1, one of them is also probably lower than 2-1.
In the 12-horse field, the 2-1 is much more likely to be the favorite. Sure, sometimes you might get a 12-horse field with (for example) an 8-5 shot and a 2-1 shot, but that's not how the odds are usually distributed. So we're likely talking about a 2-1 second choice in the 6-horse field vs. a 2-1 favorite in the 12-horse field, and considering how much more often the favorite wins than the second choice, that's why the actual winning percentages are much closer than you think they would be.
