Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
Here's the thing. You assign Flightline some number. After assigning that number, how the hell do you test it? Do you have a database of 19 length winners in major stakes races who ran super-fast times and beat Grade I horses to compare the performance with? Do you know whether they run the same figure twice?
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Here's the tricky part.
Anyone that has studied pace or race flow carefully knows that when there is a very dominant front runner in the race it can impact how the other horses in the race run. While he's cruising up front they are being used to stay with him or try to close the gap. IMO, there's no exact formula for that. It's horse/surface specific. You know the horse that won by 19+ freaked, but you can't tell by how much because the horses behind him probably didn't run as fast as they normally do.
Making a projection off a race like that then becomes problematical.
What you can do is assume the track didn't change speeds and look at the sprints and other route that day for track speed. But that can get dangerous also, especially for a feature race at an infrequently run distance because they often work on the track prior to a major stake.
And you are right, you imo CANNOT test it.
If the horses that ran behind him come back and run their typical figures next time that does not verify that they ran those same figures in the Pacific Classic because the pace/flow conditions will be a lot different if they aren't chasing a horse like Flightline.