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IMO ... horses are not machines and what you are seeing in the past performances is what they have done in the past and were capable of at that time.
It is difficult to predict how the horse will be feeling at the quarter pole or top of the stretch in this race. If the jockey feels he has plenty of horse left and the horse responds, they make a run today. Otherwise they maintain their position.
Everyone has seen a horse that only wins when they get the uncontested lead and keeps it. When they have a problem at the break and make a rush to try or get the lead, we already know what will most likely happen.
The truly classy horses, seem to win doing just as much as needed, and some of those always are pressors or midpack.
So can the jockey handle the type of horse they are on today?
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