Quote:
|
Originally Posted by LemonSoupKid
You guys are complaining about a fact you recognize yet don't take advantage of. Think about how problematic that is: You admit that you don't have, or don't want to have, adaptability.
If the favorites are hitting and you spot it, take the higher win percentage and win more with a smaller margin per bet.
It always comes down to this, sports or otherwise:
High volume and small margin OR
Low volume and large margin
Know your market and adapt. It won't stay that way forever, so always be on your toes. Easy to say, harder to do.
|
Like the screen name! On dirt I have taken the tact to accept lower price winners. I had become so accustomed to higher odds with turf that my decision making process had to be altered for dirt because my dirt hit % suffered greatly last season due to applying the same decision logic to the surface. On turf if I had 2 horses of roughly equal ability and horse A is 2-1 and horse B is 5-1 reflex would take the latter because the lower odds horse is actually less likely to win on the surface(13% vs 44%). It is completely different on dirt. Passing is the greatest reflexive attribute. And routinely betting the higher odds horses with a 21% win probability is not friendly to a bettor. I think the answer is just more precision in judgement. And not having slumped shoulders getting 5/2 LOL!
What you are talking about is a phase I went through and I think all bettors do. We flirt with hit % and can make it go up and down depending on the focus of either the low or longshot odds group. I find both extremes for me losing propositions. I have a 3.96 IV on sub 2-1 with a marginal ROI but on 9-1 and up it represents a mere 12% win rate. Neither are cornerstones for beating this game. The $9-18 mutuel range is the most profitable on either surface. But on dirt the focus on the $5-8 range is where you control your destiny for beating the surface.
