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Old 03-23-2015, 11:23 AM   #19
sbcaris
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Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 422
final 3/8, final 1/8 for Firing Line

He won easily and raced the final 3/8 in 38 1/5 and the final 1/8 in 12 3/5.

However, my method above if you read it carefully ONLY considers a fast finish in one of 5 big preps: SA Derby, Bluegrass, Wood, Fla Derby, and Ark Derby.
The statistics I stated above only refer to those races over the last 40 years. 67% of the time the Derby winner qualifies on fast final fractions in one of the above 5 preps.

There were 5 Exceptions to the Rule in the last 15 years (there wil always be exceptions)--Animal Kingdom who never ran on dirt until Derby day, Big Brown who missed qualifying by 1/5 of a second, Street Sense who ran on a polytrack at Keenland in his only prep at 9 furlongs for the Derby, War Emblem who raced in the Illinois Derby and did run a fast final 3/8 but the Illinois Derby is not one of my big 5 prep races and Mine That Bird who just did not qualify at all.
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