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I agree that getting left badly and rushing up is one of worst trips a speed horse can get, but this is one of the fastest horses in the world in terms of pure speed.
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You're not being accurate enough here. Golden Pal is one of the fastest horses in the world...from the gate. He's never lit the world on fire in terms of how he finishes a race. He normally breaks 1-2 lengths clear of the field. His distinct advantage is outbreaking the field and running them off their feet early. In the King's Stand he not only spotted the field at least a couple of lengths after rearing at the start, he also did not break
running.
As if having a 5-6 lengths to make up when he actually got into stride was not a herculean task enough, given his typical trip (which again is the key to his success), he actually found himself some 8 lengths out of order.
And none of that says anything about the stress differential for a horse that normally establishes a clear lead in full flight finding itself off stride and far back in amongst a large field of horses.
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Unless he hurt himself leaving the gate, getting back into the race was no shock. Tiring was no shock. IMO, throwing in the towel so quickly and fishing that badly was weak, despite that trip, for a horse that’s supposedly one of the best turf sprinters in the world.
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It is fruitless to dispute the finer points of Golden Pal's trip
after the botched start. He rushed up and tired as most horses in that situation do unless their jocks are intelligent enough to try to sit back and rally late or simply not persevere at all and wait for another day.
Sprinters in general have a very narrow skill set compared to classic Thoroughbreds. Just because Golden Pal is a phenom when he clears the field out of the gate doesn't mean he is talented enough to handle disastrous adversity that takes away his only weapon.
And few horses if any can makeup an 8-length deficit at breakneck speed in less than a furlong and not fall apart afterwards.
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All the data I’ve seen suggests being used hard early is LESS of a factor at 5F.
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What data? We're talking about being used hard early after a disastrous start, right?
Otherwise it sounds like you are saying the start is less critical in sprints than it is in routes, which tells me that you don't follow Quarter Horse racing and that you may have ordered chicken salad on rye with a cup of tea rather than tuna on toast and coffee for lunch...
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Personally, I would have no problem betting against him next time if he raced against a similar field at Ascot off this and his previous effort there. When he comes back to the US, I’d have no problem drawing a line through the effort.
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I suppose one could consider his 2yo race, where he got tagged in a Group 2 as a maiden in only his 2nd lifetime start, or his 3yo race where he was dusted by a course specialist (3 for 3 at York and rated ~25 points higher there than elsewhere) while coming off an injury and facing older horses for the first time as enough evidence to say he can't handle the European style of sprinting.
But if you base that tenuous conclusion on the King's Stand you're either being disingenuous or simply using the irrelevant 16th placing to load the case.
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I have no opinion on his 2yo race, but my data suggests that Euro 2yo form tends to be behind the US. They seem to develop later. It’s hard to make US/Euro comparisons at 2, but I think that’s probably why Ward has had some success over there with young horses. His horses are ahead of them.
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That's nothing new, in fact that's the very reason Ward starting running internationally to begin with.
And one of the critical components of that strategy is that his horses are quicker from the gate...
