Quote:
Originally Posted by turfeyejoe
My pre-race analysis of Friday's late pick 4 with a focus on horses likely to offer value. No need to waste time extoling the virtues of the likely favorites.
Race 6: Ohio-bred 5-Shanghai Prince has been almost exclusively sprinting but tries a route here. Dangerous for barn that is 3 for 9 last 14 days and jockey-trainer combo that has produced 10 wins from 20 starters the past 60 days. Looking at 6-Justenufftuff, I'm unsure how 4k claimers at former Fairmount Park and 5K claimers at Hawthorne fit with first-level allowance types at MVR but this small barn does well with its few runners and Bris late pace figs indicate this one will benefit if there's a speed duel.
Race 7: 8-Miss Treated Stars drops from open company to Ohio-bred for barn that's 18 percent, $2.61 ROI the past 30 days. 3-My Belle Michelle owns 5 wins locally, is fresh and has only run twice at this bottom level. Has a chance at good price.
Race 8: 4-Chardon shows fairly recent sharp 4F work from gate and gets subtle rider shift from D. Smith, one of worst on the grounds, to the competent Aviles. 3-Nan's Rose shows dull running lines but is wake-up candidate running for a tag for the first time.
Race 9: Top local rider Leon somehow lands on Turfway shipper 4-Majestic Ice, who is making first start for barn that has been idle recently but is high-percentage over the long term. Suspect this one will run much better than recent form indicates. 11-Dudes Lawyer drops a notch on the class ladder after good performance and figures to be forwardly placed for barn winning at 19 percent, $2.32 ROI at the meet.
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Good on you for typing that up. You are more dedicated than I am..lol. Your post brings back memories of what a drudgerous task writing analysis was to me. I'd do one race and need a nap.
Beyond that, something about the process made me feel like any possible inspiration had been drained from my thoughts. And it seemed like explaining something to myself that I already knew. That's one big reason I never accept side offers to do written analysis. There is just no joy in it.
I used to enjoy penning articles for magazines, and am (perpetually) trying my hand at a novel . But racing analysis? NOT FOR LOVE NOR MONEY.
BTW-Decision to come down today on tomorrow's racing at Mvr.. and then some heavy rains Wed..followed by cold spell.......
