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Late pick 4 at Mahoning Valley
My pre-race analysis of Friday's late pick 4 with a focus on horses likely to offer value. No need to waste time extoling the virtues of the likely favorites.
Race 6: Ohio-bred 5-Shanghai Prince has been almost exclusively sprinting but tries a route here. Dangerous for barn that is 3 for 9 last 14 days and jockey-trainer combo that has produced 10 wins from 20 starters the past 60 days. Looking at 6-Justenufftuff, I'm unsure how 4k claimers at former Fairmount Park and 5K claimers at Hawthorne fit with first-level allowance types at MVR but this small barn does well with its few runners and Bris late pace figs indicate this one will benefit if there's a speed duel.
Race 7: 8-Miss Treated Stars drops from open company to Ohio-bred for barn that's 18 percent, $2.61 ROI the past 30 days. 3-My Belle Michelle owns 5 wins locally, is fresh and has only run twice at this bottom level. Has a chance at good price.
Race 8: 4-Chardon shows fairly recent sharp 4F work from gate and gets subtle rider shift from D. Smith, one of worst on the grounds, to the competent Aviles. 3-Nan's Rose shows dull running lines but is wake-up candidate running for a tag for the first time.
Race 9: Top local rider Leon somehow lands on Turfway shipper 4-Majestic Ice, who is making first start for barn that has been idle recently but is high-percentage over the long term. Suspect this one will run much better than recent form indicates. 11-Dudes Lawyer drops a notch on the class ladder after good performance and figures to be forwardly placed for barn winning at 19 percent, $2.32 ROI at the meet.
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