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[MJC922]

Originally Posted by Parkview_Pirate

IF we are heading into another economic disaster? I'm not sure I would use the word disaster, but a pretty steep economic decline is baked pretty firmly in the cake, IMHO. Toss in the illogical machinations of the political class and their response, and it's pretty obvious it's going to remain bumpy for a while. Furthermore, I hardly think the Republicans will ride in for the rescue, though many believe the Democrats are the root cause of our woes. The root cause is actually higher energy prices and the twilight of the American Empire.

Like many economic systems, it takes some time for effects to filter through the system. Smaller foal crops from 2008 and lockdowns from 2020 drove some of the small owners out. Increasing prices for operations and .gov/animal rights interference have had negative effects, especially in California. Uncle Sam adding $4T to the money supply during the pandemic is now being reflected by stagflation, with essentials up sharply, and discretionary items stable or stagnant. Racing is part of the entertainment industry, and most bettors use discretionary funds for wagering. Many are caught in a bind where eating out is off the table, let alone blowing money at the track.

For more serious players, field sizes and razor sharp odds with little room for error make the game tougher than ever. And it's not just field size, but rather competitive quality of the entrants. Even at Sha Tin, a 14 horse field may have a half dozen horses with virtually no chance, making it essentially a much smaller field - and that's reflected in the odds. Racing will continue to undergo contraction, as some of the whales find rebates discontinued or their methods no longer profitable. It's a death spiral, and it has a ways to go to bottom out.

For folks working in racing, it would nice if .gov sponsored some agricultural programs for the little guys and families where a decent job with sustainable farming, ranching or permaculture was promoted. To have an alternative and viable career path for the decline ahead would be a perk. I don't know if that would ever happen, but right now .gov is in the pockets of the elites, and wealth and capital is being siphoned off to a very small group of people.

Good stuff.