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Old 09-15-2020, 09:41 PM   #33
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Join Date: Feb 2020
Posts: 436
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I find it amazing that some people still don't seem to understand that "brand" and "quality" are strongly related.

Saratoga is Coke or Pepsi and AQU is Publix Brand Cola.

The thing is, if you put the higher quality product into the generic package and vice versa, people will quickly figure out the quality has changed and change their behavior.

Run great race cards at AQU or BEL and they will do way better.

Run garbage race cards at SAR and it will do way worse.

Any comparison must include that assumption, but without data we can't know the "exact" impact of running races/cards like the Travers, Woodward, CCAO, Whitney, Test, Ballerina, Alabama, Forgeo, Sword Dancer, Diana (and on and on) at Belmont the way we can with a few things O'Crunk helped determine with data. We can just assume Belmont would have done better (probably a lot) than it did in the spring where it was up 42% going into Saratoga.

O'Crunk did a very good job on handle issues during this period. I'm sure tracks could learn a few things from it. Someone should give him a job doing this kind of work.
I don’t think dead money discriminates based on quality of horses and races. Saratoga probably takes in more dead money then any other track out there because of the thousands of tourists that visit each year. They don’t care about quality of racing. I know a lot of avid bettors who missed all that dead money this year at the Spaaaaaaa.

* For those that don’t understand. In horse racing, gamblers use the term “ recreational money “ to classify novices who typically bet a lot of “dead” money into the pari-mutuel pools.
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