Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
If we are dealing with a field of older horses with established capabilities, and we still can't understand why the favorite has been instituted as such...what is the preferred plan of action, in your opinion? Do we "fold", as mountainman suggested...or do we continue supporting our presumed "overlay", albeit in a less enthusiastic manner?
In my less "enlightened" days, I would ignore this "illogical" betting support unless it seemingly hinged upon some "unknown" handicapping variable...like a layoff, a huge class drop, or a trainer change. If there was no unknown factor surrounding this surprisingly-well-bet horse, then I would confidently proceed with my original wagering plans...figuring that I was at least as informed about this particular horse as anyone else could have been. Ahh...the arrogance of youth. Now I've learned to fold my hand...thus preserving my bankroll, as well as my sanity. As a smart horseplayer friend of mine likes to say: "In this game...only the paranoid survive".  |
I think the win pool sometimes overrates secondary angles and factors. A good example might be a layup horse with a trainer who rocks with comebacks. At 35%, for instance, they will play in a manner not only allowing that the runner is probably fit, but disregarding staple concerns like field strength, class, and projected flow, they will bet as if the horse is a cinch. Secondary factors like that are sexy, even to smart players, and often overbet.
Another example, centered mainly at smaller venues where most horses that change hands do so by private sale, is the classic switch to a better outfit. Lots of knowledgeable players that should know better figure the horse HAS to win and go over the top on an angle they simply consider sexier than class, speed numbers , or current form.
And don't EVEN get me started on the often premature rush to intuit some type of track bias. (Mahoning denizens, are you listening??) Again, quite apart from the potential profit in accurately discerning a bias sooner than fellow bettors, track bias is simply SEXY to lots of players. Especially PATH bias. Now THAT (potential) factor makes many players swoon. Even more so, in some cases than running -style trends. In fact, I constantly caution Nancy that in doing her bias notes and talking bias on the air it's important to first consider the basics: what running style seems to have some undue advantage, before jumping straight to the sexy stuff: path bias. I realize they usually go hand in hand, but it's important to eat your dinner before ripping into dessert.
Awesome thread, Gus. Stay safe.
