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[AndyC]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If we are dealing with a field of older horses with established capabilities, and we still can't understand why the favorite has been instituted as such...what is the preferred plan of action, in your opinion? Do we "fold", as mountainman suggested...or do we continue supporting our presumed "overlay", albeit in a less enthusiastic manner?

In my less "enlightened" days, I would ignore this "illogical" betting support unless it seemingly hinged upon some "unknown" handicapping variable...like a layoff, a huge class drop, or a trainer change. If there was no unknown factor surrounding this surprisingly-well-bet horse, then I would confidently proceed with my original wagering plans...figuring that I was at least as informed about this particular horse as anyone else could have been. Ahh...the arrogance of youth. Now I've learned to fold my hand...thus preserving my bankroll, as well as my sanity. As a smart horseplayer friend of mine likes to say: "In this game...only the paranoid survive".

Why not just bet the horse that makes you fold your hand?