Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Same experience for me.
The one thing I will qualify that with is that I realize that sometimes I don't understand the favorite because my own information and/or understanding is incomplete. But if I understand why the horse is favored and disagree strongly, that's when I want to get involved.
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If we are dealing with a field of older horses with established capabilities, and we still can't understand why the favorite has been instituted as such...what is the preferred plan of action, in your opinion? Do we "fold", as mountainman suggested...or do we continue supporting our presumed "overlay", albeit in a less enthusiastic manner?
In my less "enlightened" days, I would ignore this "illogical" betting support unless it seemingly hinged upon some "unknown" handicapping variable...like a layoff, a huge class drop, or a trainer change. If there was no unknown factor surrounding this surprisingly-well-bet horse, then I would confidently proceed with my original wagering plans...figuring that I was at least as informed about this particular horse as anyone else could have been. Ahh...the arrogance of youth. Now I've learned to fold my hand...thus preserving my bankroll, as well as my sanity. As a smart horseplayer friend of mine likes to say: "In this game...only the paranoid survive".
