Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman
Great topic that in large part boils down to when a player should duck, as opposed to standing his ground.
It's been my experience that favorites I did not foresee more often bite me when I can't comprehend the support. (Please, don't conflate this with chalks I consider fatally flawed. I will bet against those ANYTIME.) Conversely, when I CAN discern the reason(s) that a mere contender or fringe horse gets pounded, but simply disagree about said entrant, I am often correct and the win pool misguided. In other words, if I can SEE AND AM FAMILIAR with what weapons my opponents in the win pool are wielding, I like my chances. Otherwise, I've learned to fold.
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Same experience for me.
The one thing I will qualify that with is that I realize that sometimes I don't understand the favorite because my own information and/or understanding is incomplete. But if I understand why the horse is favored and disagree strongly, that's when I want to get involved.
