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[mountainman]

Great topic that in large part boils down to when a player should duck, as opposed to standing his ground.

It's been my experience that favorites I did not foresee more often bite me when I can't comprehend the support. (Please, don't conflate this with chalks I consider fatally flawed. I will bet against those ANYTIME.) Conversely, when I CAN discern the reason(s) that a mere contender or fringe horse gets pounded, but simply disagree about said entrant, I am often correct and the win pool misguided. In other words, if I can SEE AND AM FAMILIAR with what weapons my opponents in the win pool are wielding, I like my chances. Otherwise, I've learned to fold.

I do have a theory proposing one reason that unlikely horses go favored, and it's a belief I touched on in Jason Beem's popular podcast. Modern sharpies possess and hone lots of handicapping tools and weaponry. And it's human nature to want to employ them, even the most obscure and specialized. In fact, ESPECIALLY the most obscure and specialized. Consequently, hard-learned "advanced" angles and factors that should be secondary to handicapping basics often catch FIRE in the win pool and determine who goes favored. Lots of well-schooled players, I think, are soooo proud of their trimmings that they put them before the turkey.

This theory of mine is one reason I constantly warn good handicappers attempting to guestimate final odds to BE REALISTIC. No matter how unique your approach , others almost CERTAINLY see what you do, even if you are super sharp and supplement traditional handicapping resources with extra-info of your own. Hell-ESPECIALLY if you are super sharp and put in the work.