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IMO, a lot of the time you can't understand why a horses is the favorite it's because whatever figures you are using are different than the ones dominating the action at that track (typically TG and Rags), you are unaware of a trainer pattern, bias, or some other piece of information, or perhaps you are just misunderstanding or misinterpreting something in that horse's PPs.
I see things like that all the time when comparing my views to those of very good public handicappers. We sometimes disagree because we are looking at different figures or disagree about a bias etc.. We all occasionally have incorrect data or are misunderstanding something.
That said, this is also a battle between insiders and outsiders.
It's obvious that insiders often have an edge with first time starters and layoffs, but they also have access to information about a horse's recent condition on other horses. It may not be as significant because the horse is not an unknown, but it still represents some of the action on the board.
I didn't handicap the race and I'm not familiar with any of those horses, but I would guess the public tossed his last race because of the big jump in class and focused on his next to last at a similar level with Saez. That made him a solid contender. It would be tough for me to make that horse 8/5 unless I was convinced he was as good on dirt as on synth/turf and I was expecting a big race.
Also remember, sometimes underlays win.
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"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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