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Old 03-31-2019, 10:58 PM   #7
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Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Lexington, KY
Posts: 261
Thank You for the feedback - Some responses

Originally Posted by eqitec View Post
We are somewhat on the same wavelength in attempting to use race & workout data (which I call the "form cycle") to judge horse fitness. Attached is an extract of an info graphic for the horse you cited from today's 11th at GP (Restoring Hope) that I've designed to give me a quick overview of the horses training and racing history, to the extent they can be seen.

In comparing the training methods between Baffert & Servis, you couldn't have happened upon a more extreme example, which the info graphic helps to point out.

What helps me most is, after viewing these by the 1000s, I have a good idea of the trainer patterns leading up to their winning races. What can be seen from the Restoring Hope form cycle example, Bafferts training vs. Servis' training, are entirely consistent with their usual methods for getting their horses ready to win.

But, as you have referenced, Servis trains extensively off tracks at the farm, and, I suspect, is not reporting all workouts done there to Equibase. There were 241 days between RH's last race on 6/9/18 and it's first published WO on 2/5/19 at PMM. From that point it worked 4 more times at PMM in slow 3 & 4Fs up to today's win, as can be seen from the graphic. I suspect RH was worked up to racing fitness somewhere else before the first published work on 2/5, which was followed by maintenance WOs for relaxation purposes after that up to today's victory.

Yes, I had suspected that some trainers do that. Thank You for confirming. Of course there are other fitness maintenance activities besides Workouts I assume (because I do NOT have a horse training background and have no idea). But those other activities could explain SOME of that but I agree, not all.


I do another calculation of a horse's #F worked & raced per day for the form cycle leading up to the race I am handicapping. The graphic shows that calculation to be 0.3 F per day for RH starting from the 2/5/19 date of it first published work after the 241 day layoff. This #, 0.3 F per day is very low for a horse that wins. Most often its in the 0.4 - 0.7 range. If this record was for any other trainer, I'd consider it to be a negative indicator, but not for Servis's horses.

I hadn't thought of #F per day. I think I will add that to my view.


There are about 300 tracks and off-track training centers, so it would be impossible for Equibase to know who is and isn't reporting completely or correctly. In doing some research I talked to a Florida-based trainer whose workouts were being reported from an off-track training center as being over a track labeled as "Gd" 100% of the time, even during periods of drought in the region. He told me he thought the "Gd" label meant that his training location was "a nice place to train", like a "Gd" cup of coffee. Either he was playing dumb or was. Equibase could have/should have observed the same pattern I observed and done something about it for the sake of the integrity of its published information. Based on our conversation, this trainer has changed his WO reporting to accurately state the track's condition.

Such is the depressing state of the integrity of data supplied to the entire industry.


I made a couple comments above where you see ##. As I mentioned above I do NOT have a horse training background. I live less than 5 miles from the Keeneland track but so far have only experienced the 'Fan' / 'Bettor' side of the business. I suppose that is why I have so many questions.

So one question I'd like to raise relative to your approach. Just how far back does it make sense to go. I am thinking that a horse that underwent excellent conditioning a year ago has lost all that mojo so that it matters ,only or at least much much more, what has he done Lately. I ask out of ignorance. I have been using a 8 week window but that time frame is a guess. Do you think that window makes sense? Too long, too short. Does it make sense that the works that were further away are worth 'less' to the horse?

Thank You again for the feedback
A profit at the race track isn't a profit until you spend it somewhere else.
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