We can publish whatever statistical time period for which we have Equibase data. The developers HDW works with want a different mish mash of statistics for various time periods so we make statistics every night for everything from last 7 years to last 365 days (the default time period we use on many of our own reports) to last 180 days to last 90 days to last 30 days to even last 7 days (hot jockey or hot trainer) to current meet to previous meet and more in between.
I am not making any pronouncements concerning which time periods are "valid" or "representative" or most predictive for today's race. That itself is a big can of worms everybody here can thrash around.
Regarding the time period for statistics, here is a summary of the sprint to route statistics for Jason Servis for various time periods.
Code:
Period Starts Wins Win %
Last 60 days 5 0 0%
Last 180 days 15 0 0%
Last 240 days 22 3 13.64%
Last 365 days 35 6 17.14%
Last 730 days 69 9 13.04%
Last 1000 days 92 12 13.04%
Last 2000 days 162 31 19.14%
Last 3000 days 220 41 18.64%
Last 4000 days 287 49 17.07%
Last 5000 days 333 57 17.12%
All these statistics are as of right now. Suppose we ran these statistics going into the Sep 12, 2015 race at MTH, the start of a 16 race losing streak with sprint to route. Pick some different time periods and you get a smorgasbord of results:
Code:
Period Starts Wins Win %
Last 30 days 3 2 66.67%
Last 60 days 6 2 33.33%
Last 90 days 9 3 33.33%
Last 365 days 38 7 18.42%
Last 1000 days 93 18 19.35%
Divide it up further by track and you get more variation. Here's a selection going back from today's date:
Code:
Period Track Starts Wins Win %
Last 365 days AQU 9 0 0%
Last 365 days MTH 12 4 33.33%
Last 1000 days AQU 29 2 6.9%
Last 1000 days MTH 23 6 26.09%
Last 1000 days GP 11 1 9.09%
Make of this what you will.
Ron Tiller
HDW
