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Thread: Overlays
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Old 09-10-2021, 03:13 PM   #4
MJC922
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Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 1,080
Over the long-term I don't know that any one pool would be any less efficient than the others if that's what you're asking. What would be more critical IMO is (no matter the pool) the ability to know as close as possible what the final odds will be. As mentioned in other threads the full double probables matrix at the completion of the first leg is IMO one very good way to 'know' that.

Why we lose ultimately is that we bet on too many underlays and when we bet a horse at one minute to post because the odds at one minute to post seem to be 'value' but almost half the time it goes into underlay territory after you wager while some other horse goes off the overlay then that's an impossible way to play the game successfully IMO. I would strongly suggest sticking with the DD probables, get the expected final odds from those, assume all of the other pools will fall into line with those expected odds. With that methodology I think you're probably looking at the best-case scenario for betting on overlays a very high percentage of the time. I think trifectas are still fine if that's what someone is good at (leveraging verticals) cool, as long as it's overlays you're fine.
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Last edited by MJC922; 09-10-2021 at 03:15 PM.
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