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[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by zico20

Lot to dissect here. Of course turn of foot evaporates if you are closer to the lead in fast fractions but if Mage is up close in slow fractions then the turn of foot is still there but it isn't as easily noticeable.

Fair enough, but it was fast fractions in the Derby, so it would have been ill-advised to try to lay closer with Mage. The horse was certainly attractive given his FL Derby effort, but for me it wasn't certain that he would try to come off the pace again.

For example: Much was made of Reincarnate breaking slow, sitting back, and making a sustained run (with trouble) in the Rebel to the extent that I think he was made starting favorite for the Arkansas Derby. But he went right back to his speed/presser role in that race & predictably wilted for a ho-hum 3rd place finish.

I would believe Mage would have done much the same had he been up there early with Two Phil's or Confidence Game yesterday.

I am tossing Two Phil's right now because I simply don't believe he is talented enough to run three huge races in a row. In his seventh start Sun Thunder blew by him, that isn't a sign of a talented, special horse.

I don't think he needs to be special to win the Preakness & he's been consistent enough even in his losses to think he'll hold his form next out. Perhaps more so than Mage, as his career has progressed smoothly whereas Mage has had to move up leaps & bounds in a short time frame. That will take a toll on him physically eventually if they keep it up (and they are keeping it up if he wheels back in 2 weeks).

Meanwhile, Two Phil's is at a phase where his trainer is able to work him less (note he was working on average every 10 days for the Derby whereas everyone else was working every 6-7 days...including the ones that got scratched) because he's got plenty of foundation & doesn't need to be worn down with training.

Mage on the other hand is only getting ready to run his 5th race and he has improved greatly in his last two. For a horse to run out of his comfort zone after bad starts and impress like he has means he has the ability to be something special.

I don't think he's out of his comfort zone sitting back and unleashing a huge run. I think they stumbled upon (no pun intended) his preferred style. Hopefully they stick to it.

Seasoning goes out the window after the fourth start, besides making two monster moves shows he knows what the game is all about.

My point with seasoning is that the horse is having to do too much too soon & eventually it will catch up with him. However, perhaps your right & he has the constitution of a horse like Curlin who had the book thrown at him & kept rolling.

Yes it took a furlong but it wasn't like they were crawling home, Two Phil's kept running his heart out. Mage got tired in the Florida Derby after that stunning run which had it started a 16th later he wins like a champ. Thankfully Saez stupid ride made me a whole lot more money since he would have been 5-1 had he won the Florida Derby.

I see a bit of hang in him. Street Sense--who had phenomenal acceleration--was like that, too, but got the job done most of the time.

At this juncture, I think there's a good chance we see a similar battle from these two in the Preakness. Hopefully some solid speed lines up so that neither horse has to change tactics too much.