Quote:
Originally Posted by proximity
ok poker fans we continue our 2017 season in another small stakes limit hold 'em game in a casino that i will keep anonymous.
i end up winning $21 in this game but suffer a bad experience that i always worried would happen.
we're about 2/3 of the way through the session when i fold a small pocket pair to a raise.
had i called here i would've flopped a boat, rivered quads, AND LOST THE HAND to flopped quads.
in this casino, at this particular time, this would've paid me a bad beat jackpot of slightly more than $30,000.
certainly not "life changing" money but enough to keep my spirits up. i always thought i'd go numb if (when) this happened and i was mildly surprised that i didn't feel much of anything. this particular "loss" however when combined with my overall bad run and declining benefits at the casinos would ultimately dampen my enthusiasm for the game.
thank you for reading.
game +21
year -2842 (51-61)
bonus 0 (920)
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The thing is, it's generally a -EV play.
Here's some calculations that can give you some guidance on it. The California bad beat jackpots tend to be about $40,000, with $16,000 to the losing hand and $8,000 to the winning hand. When the rake was $6 (it is now $7), I did some calculations on something people do, which is play the hand (and pay the rake) when one player has a big ace and the other player has a big pocket pair (three aces, in that situation, produces aces full of tens or better beaten by four of a kind, the easiest type of jackpot). In that situation, KNOWING what your opponent has, it was just slightly +EV to go ahead and play it if you knew that the big ace was AT or better. It was -EV at A9 (because face cards would kill the jackpot).
So it is incredibly unlikely that calling to hit a quads-against-quads jackpot, not even knowing if another pocket pair is out there, is profitable. Especially if it is only $30,000.
