Quote:
Originally Posted by Publius
Southwest was run on Presidents weekend in years past prior to Oaklawn changing their racing dates.
Comparing years past to today is now outdated.
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Correct, and I think the results will only be WORSE for the winner (if that's possible) with the earlier date. We are talking about growing, maturing 3yos. As horses develop and progress towards an appearance in the 20-stall starting gate in May, many of the more precocious ones fall by the wayside.
Want different numbers, since those were "outdated"? Since Smarty Jones's Southwest in 2004, there have been all of 2 May Derby winners who've won a JANUARY stakes - Barbaro and Medina Spirit. (Authentic did, but his Derby was in September.) In addition to the Southwest, Smarty Jones won Aqueduct's version of the Count Fleet in early January 2004.
My argument is less about a specific race like the Southwest, than about wasting time getting excited about Derby season/preps and their winners, especially early ones.
I'd be more interested in a future pool where I could wager on the various prep winners NOT being in the gate on the first Saturday in May, let alone running and winning!!! There are a lot more times when in 4-5 years we look back at the list of winners of these early preps and can't even remember the horses, because they went on to accomplish not much of anything.
Again, COULD Arabian Knight win the Derby? Sure. Do I need to waste any time evaluating that possibility before May 1st and he's drawn into a starting stall? No.
#WaitUntilMay #JustAnotherRace
