Quote:
Originally Posted by Topcat
headhawg,
First, I encourage everyone to do their own testing and to come their own fact based conclusions.
Secondly, as Speed Figure explains above, both BRIS and Handicappers Data Warehouse get their data from the same place, that is Equibase, it is not like one gets their data from Equibase and another from Timeform. The value comes from what the HDW programs can do with the data.
Third, I did not test HDW data in RPM programs, but tested the data or similar factors. One that did show a gap in favor of HDW was last race speed rating in BRIS vs. Cramer Speed rating, and you can argue that this isn't "apples to apples" as Cramer uses a different projection method in calculating track variant. While they correlated over 90% of the time, Cramer was a little better.
In over 10,000 races the BRIS best last race speed rating , if over 1 point of next horse, the loss was in my test 14% or $1.74 for every two dollars, HDW Cramer speed rating same criterion loss of 10% or $1.80. Both losers and this is one of the factors that would give an edge to HDW but this is one of the few that showed a difference, now as you get into PSR, projected speed ratings and different weighted pace calculations there is added value but those, IMHO is driven by the software partners of HDW and not necessarily the raw data.
|
I'm still waiting for verification on this statement....
In my years of handicapping , I have
NEVER saw a speed based rating
at .90
As for you Dave.....your number of starts and wins are way off for 2023....Can you verify that
please....I am meticulous in my data records , so I am confident in my numbers
