Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

View Single Post
Old 02-19-2018, 02:57 PM   #27
Dave Schwartz
Dave Schwartz's Avatar
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 14,209
Rep Power: 36 Dave Schwartz is just really niceDave Schwartz is just really niceDave Schwartz is just really niceDave Schwartz is just really niceDave Schwartz is just really nice
Originally Posted by jeebus1083 View Post
I know that many of the systems/analysts in HSH are based on composite (?) factors and weighted ranks. The original NewPace employee concepts such as population samples, weighted/composite numbers. Dave fine tuned the approach over time, but the point is that an analyst does not use a single paceline to represent “the” horse. It attempts to take into account the horse’s history (or comparable parts of it) and weighs it against the other runners and expected profit/loss ($net).
That is exactly right. Thanks, Jeebus.

The idea is to emulate paceline selection without actually selecting pacelines. It works amazingly well.

Consider the old Sartin concept of EP-SP-W being the only factors.

You wind up with 10 pacelines, each with 3 possibilities=30 choices. Then you interpret the model and ultimately use one column. (or maybe more)

Thus, if you chose the 2nd paceline back and decided that EP was the column to use...

All we've done is built a modeling process that begins with the 3 columns, based upon things like Last Race, Best of Last 2 Races, 2nd Best ever, etc. In this example, there are actually 39 possible choices.

Thus, if our model said that the most important factor was EP, Best-2-of-Last-3, we'd select this:

We actually model 8 factors x 13 measurements, so there are 104 possible choices.

All of this, without selecting an actual paceline.

BTW, in the new software I am building which I hope will be in beta before the Derby, there are around 10,000 combinations.

Dave Schwartz is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Reason for drop off...
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:52 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2018 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to and affiliated sites.