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Originally Posted by papillon
However, the data for Rayya, who came in second to Mendelssohn on the same dirt at the same track at the same distance in the same path, comprises two races: 1:59.66 (UAE Oaks) and 1:58.42 (UAE Derby).
She gained less than a second along the rail on a track that is imputed to have been considerably faster than 1 second.
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The front end and the rail were the places to be supposedly
throughout the Dubai Carnival, not just World Cup day. See the Mr. Vosburgh video.
Sure enough, Rayya was one of the 16 (of 17 races) winners in dirt races at Meydan that assumed the early lead and rode the rail. So it is not necessarily a given that she should have improved time-wise very much from her UAE Oaks. By the way, she also carried more weight in the UAE Oaks (126 lbs to 121 lbs in the Derby).
None of that though explains why Mendelssohn won by a massive 18 lengths. The probable explanation is fairly simple, Mendelssohn completely outclassed those horses.
So who did he beat? Rayya, a filly with a modest pedigree that sold for $7,000 as a yearling. Gold Town, a Godolphin failure in Europe who was gelded after being unable to place in even listed stakes company. Reride, a second stringer from the Steve Asmussen barn--who doesn't have a Derby major contender to begin with--who has run at Delta Downs and Sunland Park. The latter's claim to fame is besting a horse named Runaway Ghost.
The only race of consequence Runaway Ghost ever started in was the Los Alamitos Futurity against modest Derby prospects Solomini and Instilled Regard and the injured McKenzie.
He was beaten 36 lengths.
Suddenly those 18 lengths don't look that amazing.
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Mendelssohn's performance is perhaps better understood in relation to Beholder's performances, then to the other 3yos'. She out ran her pedigree by 4fs, she had the Henessy speed but what appears to be the Leslie's Lady stamina. She could lope along at the same speed as the horses in front of her then pass the between 5-6f as they hit their thresholds one by one, and maintain her speed to the end. She used her Henessy speed to stay close and her Leslie's Lady stamina carried her past everyone as they reached their lactic acid threshold. Mendelssohn didn't accelerate, he maintained. Mendelssohn is out of the Henessy/Leslie's Lady Nick.
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The furthest distance Leslie's Lady won a race at was 6.5f.
