Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
The 7...and figured to have considerable pressure on the front end from the 1, the 3 and the 9, whose last race was obviously uncharacteristic of what the horse was capable of, pace-wise.
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I don't agree here. The 1-horse was not a frontrunner historically save for its last start when it set very slow fractions at a longer distance than today's race.
The 3-horse was a confirmed frontrunner at the distance--something Uncle B was not--, but was also coming off a wire job with tepid fractions. At any rate, he did in fact set the pace again.
The 9-horse, like the 1-horse, had shown front-running speed only once in its career, and that race was several months ago. He appears to be a horse racing into shape and not a certainty to contest the pace in today's race.
All that aside, Uncle B wasn't even a dedicated frontrunner to begin with. But, ignoring his start on a non-firm turf course (in which he had a troubled start), he was clearly coming out of the two fastest races based on raw times. I'm not sure how much stock should be given to turf BSFs, they seem to be a distraction.
The 8-horse was not the most accomplished horse from a class standpoint. At the advanced age of 9, he had done nothing but run in $16K starters for the past 2 racing seasons and had little success early in his career in stakes. While he was in solid form, note that the only two times he failed to hit the board on firm turf were in races with very slow paces.
Meanwhile, Uncle B has won or placed in 5 stakes races (in fact he debuted in a stakes) during his career. While he may have been moving up in class--condition-wise at least--he also had previously made the biggest nosedive of the group when he hit the $16K conditioned race. I'm not a fan of the huge drop for a "confidence boost", but on the surface, the move seemed to work as he won and just missed in his two tries at the level on firm ground.
The only other horse of note that was a contender off the morning line was the 2-horse. Like the 8-horse, he was an ex-Ken Ramsey octogenarian, and note that despite fitting the condition as a horse who started for $16K, the connections--who just claimed him for $25K--opted for the $30K tag. Showed up in front wraps and drifted out in the stretch. Not promising for future starts.
