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Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I know. We've discussed this some.
I just suspect that slow paces producing larger margins is probably the result of fresh faster horses already on the lead drawing off from the rest of field into the stretch as opposed to something related to times.
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It is all related, including field size. Smaller races are less competitive gate to wire, thus larger margins, less contested pace, etc. When you look at the factors individually, the big picture starts to make a lot more sense.
I've discovered a few things along the way. For example, at TimeformUS, we should probably not have "Favors Horses On / Near the Early Lead" for races where field size is high, because the pace is rarely slow in those races no matter how it looks on paper.
