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Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Good stuff.
Are you looking at just winning margins or margins between all horses?
They could produce mildly different results.
Many big winners are good horses that got loose on the lead in a relatively slow pace and drew off from the rest of the field and others are dominant speeds that torched the rest of the field in an average pace for them that was too fast for the others. Those are kind of unique situations relative to the typical race that could distort something.
You also might want to remove maiden races from the data to see how that impacts the results. I think my data in maiden sprints showed that there are more dominant "big" winners in maiden races than in the typical race because you run into some real killers at that level that will eventually move way up. That's more of a class issue than a race development and average beaten length issue.
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Just winning margins. I think that is a more stable set to use than including other margins.
I've been doing this a long time, I know about all the distortions. I am greater than 99% certain that those things aren't changing the results with sample sizes as large as I'm using.
