[/ATTACH]
Quote:
Originally Posted by linrom1
On turf, its's a rarity that a top 3-year old will defeat a good 4-year old.
|
It's an everyday occurrence in Europe right through the grades - but the following graphic concentrates on UK & IRE 3yo+ Group 1 Flat Turf & Aw Races (over 90% are on turf) since 2008 to currently yesterday - i could have put up similar for Group 2 , 3 , & Listed level and the bias is even more pronounced in our Handicap system - so much that top trainer Mark Johnston regularly calls for a change to a US style claiming system based on prize money. 3yos have a clear advantage over their elders more than likely due to the WFA(Weight For Age) allowance they receive and the table shows a by age breakdown with various metrics including Win/WinPlace Impact Values and Betfair Actual To Expected (A/E)
This allowance was looked at relatively recently by International Handicappers and an adjustment made to try and equalise the advantage. Even if you don't believe the "counting" stats like Win % or Win/Place % or even the impact values or the actual exceeding the expected according to the Betfair Market , then i have added a metric called % of Rivals Beaten which cumulatively measures total position against total runners across the full sample - 3yos come out tops at 51.23% against a par of ever so slightly over 50%.
