Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
This is a question.
Let's assume you have a horse you believe had a terrible but somewhat hidden trip last out and he figures to get a great trip this time. Depending on the field he draws into, his odds today will vary.
If he draws into a tough spot he might be 15-1 or 20-1 and if he draws into an easy spot he might be 7/2.
To me, either way, if I am right about the trips there's probably value on him in both spots even if the public odds are telling me his probability of winning is different in those two fields. The only difference to me is that if he's 7/2 I'd be more apt to use him on top heavier and if he was 15-1 or 20-1 because of the tough field and might not win anyway, I'd use him a little less on top and use him 2nd and 3rd with some other horses trying to get that value on my ticket.
The probability of winning may change the way I structure the bet but it won't change the fact that I'm interested in that horse. So what I do really need the public odds for other than confirming what I already know, that one field was tougher than the other?
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The costly mistake I made in the past when judging a trip was to decide about a horse in the manner you suggest above. Now it's far more the case of detesting the chances of a low bet horse, ideally two, in order to boost the pct. chance of interesting others' winning.
Your above horse in that tough field could likely encounters a significant rival or two I can toss. That's far less likely in the easy field where he's 7/2 and the second or third choice, against a formidable foe with his own advantages in an easier field.
