Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
Those darn hillbillies pop up everywhere.  When starting this project, like most projects, I figured at first it should be fairly easy. And part of it is, and that part is getting the raw numbers. The goal is to compare different tracks to establish the speed of each track.
My plan is:
All races to be used are for 4 yr olds and up and on a fast track.
I am only using certain races. If different run-ups are used only the "standard" run-up will be used. Grade 1 and 2, and Maiden Claiming races are not used. Next I looked at each day and eliminated any day that had less than 2 and more than 5 wire to wire winners. Of the remaining races, only races that the winner was within .5 lengths of the lead for the whole race will be used.
Keeneland 6f......22.65......46.00......70.59 (2014 to 2017) 49 races
Pick the method apart.  |
I've done a similar exercise for Parx over the last year year(2017) with absolutely no restrictions. Of course there are few if any Gr I & II 6f races at Parx, usually >1M.
Parx 6f.......22.47......46.09.......71.89 (2017) 180 races
Other than class, I found that the month of the year, assuming weather/track conditions affected these times the most. I gave up using fast track designations since very fast times often show up on off tracks. I still prefer a track variant somewhat in the normal range for fast, whatever that means. If I were to remove all the MSW and Maiden claimers from the data, my guess is the final times would be very close. Looking at your TT's and final fractions compared to Parx we have:
Kee TT 23.35 ......FF 24.39
Prx TT 23.62 ......FF 25.80
The quicker FF's at Kee, most likely due to class adv. over Parx and usually better weather, but I'm not as familiar with either at Kee.
