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Old 04-11-2011, 05:00 PM   #3
Capper Al
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Book review of Extreme Pace Handicapping by Randy Giles

Extreme Pace Handicapping – If You Doodle It, They Will Come

Randy Giles in his book Extreme Pace Handicapping brings something new to handicapping – the doodle. A doodle is a picture of the herd in motion at the first call, using each horse’s running style along with Quirin Speed Points. Here’s a made up example:

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Par 108 (PPG 27x2) – Late (Early speed is expected to collapse)

.... 1A)E7x .... 7)EP5 .... 6)P2x .... 8)PC3x .... 2)Cx

.... 10)E5 ..... 1)EP4x ... ....... ..... 3)PC ....

.... .......... ..... 5)EP5....

.... .......... ..... 9)EP4x ....

.... .......... ..... 4)EP0x

.... .......... ..... 11)EP5

'x' does not meet Speed Rating par -- (Beyer or BRIS like Speed figures)

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In the above diagram, #3 is the pick. All the early horses are doomed to run themselves out in the early chase for the lead. The Presser (P) #6 or the Presser/Closer (PC) #8 do not meet the minimum speed par, so they are skipped over.

A presser/closer’s running style has been added to the four basic running styles (E, EP, P, S). A presser/closer is the opposite of the EP style horse who runs on the lead. PC horses come on from behind when the front end collapses. Presser/closers are like their name implies. They may press or close. EP and PC are considered talented because they have demonstrated that they can adjust their styles to fit the race.

Mr. Giles identifies Extreme Pace characters or patterns found in the doodles. There are four major characters classified—The Thief, the Clever Thief, the Loner, and the Carpetbagger. The Thief, for example, is one that most of us already know. The Thief is the lone early horse who could steal the race from what might be considered better horses. The idea is to quickly doodle races skipping over races without an identifiable character. Once a character is found, it has the potential to be a value play. This is ideal for today’s simulcast player.

After an Extreme Pace character is identified, the Pace Pressure Gauge (PPG) is used to determine if the race is going to go to the early pace horses or go to the come from behind horses. If a presser is being considered, his Pace Comfort Zone (PCZ) will help determine if he could catch the field and win.

The Extreme Pace Handicapping is a simple and straight forward handicapping method, but it does require some practice. There are many examples to practice on. Yet, it is a difficult read and not recommended for the novice handicapper. For the intermediate or advanced handicapper who voyages through the book, they will have to deal with a major paradigm shift from handicapping horses to handicapping the herd. This mind shift is no small feat, but it is worth the effort. Randy has an excellent speed rating par that weeds out the contenders from the pretenders but the details of his par are not shared in the book. However, Randy will answer any of your questions.

William Quirin in his book Winning at the Races quantified the advantage of early verse late pace horses over thirty years ago. Howard Sartin with his disciples ordained that Pace Makes the Race in the book with that same title. The pace boys later appear to have split up. One major group studied energy distribution verse others who stayed with running styles, or adjusted final times with the second call or the second fraction added in. As impressive as some of the results of pace methods of the past were, they really only redefined speed. The problem with most handicapping systems is they figure a race as if the horses are going to run like Olympic runners and stay in their own designated lanes. This doesn’t happen. A race is a battle for position. The doodle gives the picture of the probable battle each horse will have to contend with as the race unfolds.

Mr. Giles extrapolates from the doodle into his Optimal Pace Model added as a bonus chapter at the end of the book. The pace model matches energy distribution with running styles and race makeup. This will be beyond most readers. Maybe this is an attempt to analyze a race beyond the doodle.

It is a struggle to integrate one’s own true and tested handicapping methods with the doodle. But this should be expected with the paradigm shift toward analyzing the herd. Nonetheless, every intermediate and advanced handicapper should expand their horizons by taking a look at Extreme Pace Handicapping to get acquainted with the doodle and its cast of Extreme Pace characters.

Randy has been more than happy to reply to any questions. Send him a PM here at PaceAdvantage or contact him at his website www.paceappraiser.com.
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Last edited by CapperAl; 04-11-2011 at 05:03 PM.
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