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Originally Posted by cj
So, what do you think it was. Was this the "Perfect Storm" of elements 1 through 3 aligning perfectly, never done in the last 15 years?
1. I don't think it is very likely at all a horse with that many starts is suddenly going to develop more than average. This is especially true since the horse had won long and short easily, one a stakes race.
2. Sure, but probably not to that extent. Very few horses have problems while winning quality races and racing as often as this one did.
3. Sure, it happens...15 is a bit much though.
4. Of course.
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CJ,
I see examples of horses improving sharply later in their career than that. 2YOs and 3YOs are notorious for sudden sharp improvement. It's true that many are routers that finally got a chance to stretch out, but it's not impossible for a sprinter to get good all of sudden.
I think it's close to 100% certain that part of the improvement was related to Dutrow taking his time with the horse, using superior training, a better vet, and correcting some problems legitimately. How much that is worth I don't know.
I see examples of Beyer figures that IMO are off by 10 points almost every single day I handicap. Some I can account for (extreme pace isues etc..), but many are flukes that I can't explain with certainty. The latest high profile example was the Interborough. It was the 8th race on January 1st. IMO, that figure is too slow by around 10 points.
You are right. I would require a perfect storm of events to explain this race away without it being cheating, but I think at least some of those events are fairly likely in this specific case. I am reserving judgement until after I see how some of these horses come out of the race because even though I am the only one that thinks so, I believe that figure "could be" off by 10 or more points. I readily admit I could be wrong though. If I am, then cheating moves way up on the probability chart.
