Quote:
Originally Posted by SG4
I was wondering if any kind of stat or program exists to give jockeys something of a performance expectation rating. What I mean by this is say a jockey is on the 4th betting choice in a race & they finish 2nd, I'd give them a +2 score that race, or if you're on a favorite and finish 5th they'd get a -4 for that race. Wonder if an average score would help identify riders who may be over/underestimated by the betting public, or could possibly help identify upcoming apprentice jockeys as ones to watch.
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We've had this in our software for years.
It is based upon what we call PIV - "Pool Impact Value." - When I say "Years," I mean "Decades."
PIV is like the formula for IVs. That is, total wins divided by expected wins...
IV= TotWins/ExWins
ExWins are the sum of 1/FieldSize.
Thus, in a 10-horse field, each horse is "expected" to win 0.10 races.
In a 5-horse field, each horse is "expected" to win 0.20 races.
PIV=TotWins/ExWins
The only difference is that ExWins are determined by the pct of pool wagered on each horse.
Thus, a horse with 40% of the pool is expected to win 0.40 races.
