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[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

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the linked chart from Brisnet comes to a much different conclusion

according to Brisnet 2/1 over 3/1 has a fair payout of $16 for a $ 2 bet which makes it $ 8.00 for a $ 1.00 bet



http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/allwaysexacta


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Is this a case of the Brisnet chart being based on the toteboard odds (which include the track takeout), and Formula's calculations of fair payout being based on the true probabilities based on those odds after eliminating the takeout?

Example:
Win pool is $100,000
Takeout is 20%
Horse A has $20,000 wagered to win
Horse A toteboard odds: 3-1 ($80,000 left in pool after take-$20K bet on horse A=$60K/$20K bet on horse A=25% "tote" probability)
Horse A "true" odds: 4-1 ($100,000 total pool-$20K Horse A=$80K/$20K=20% "true" probability)