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Old 06-19-2020, 09:00 AM   #4
Redboard
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Race 8, Belmont, Friday June 19th

Optional Claimer N2X for three-year-olds & up, state bred, 6 furlongs on dirt, field of nine.

Belmont, Friday June 19th, 5:04pm
Race 8

Eye Luv Lulu 5-2
J.Lezcano/R.Atras
ML favorite is also the oldest horse in the field (age 9), and has had 56 lifetime starts with 11 wins, 12 seconds, 8 thirds. Earned his connections over $900k — one would think that that would be enough — and yet he’s up for a tag here(needed to qualify). I guess things are tough all over.
As far as his chances, this is the lowest level he’s been at in his career. There were two Optional Claimers since 1/1/2019, but they were against open competition, this is a state bred. But his last race in February, was his worst finish in three years along with his worst beyer, and he is nine years old. Another thing to consider is that this is his first race without Jason Servis as his trainer. toss

Leaky Cup 4-1
J.Alvarado/J.Kimmel
Speedster that’s been having problems finishing since he’s been in Kimmel’s barn (last four races). The race before that, his last win, gate-to-wire, came in the slop at Saratoga, earned him a career-best 92 Beyer. But if the surface is dry on Friday, he’s in my toss pile (forecast calls for no rain, although it’s been somewhat unpredictable lately). toss

The Caretaker 4-1
L.Saez/T.Morley
Since 1/1/2019, owns the highest Beyer in the field— a 97 he scored on 12/29/2019 at AQU at the N1X level. His last race, a 2nd place finish, saw him almost catch at the wire, but he ran out of ground. Like all closers the race has to be set up for him. Tried stepping up, three-back, to no avail. With 30 career starts, he’s been running exclusively at NYRA tracks and of his six lifetime wins, only one came at Belmont. He did better at AQU and SAR. But if all goes well, he certainly has a shot.

Summer Bourbon 9-2
J.Rosario/R.Rodriguez
Had two nice wins in Feb. , off for 90 days, then Rudy ran him against open competition 12 days ago, for some reason. Most likely, he felt that the horse “needed one” after the layoff. The short rest this time concerns me, but Rudy has a good record (25%) for second time off the bench.

Steam Engine 8-1
J.Ortiz/B.Cox
Of his seven lifetime starts, he has two wins both at this track. Been off for the last eight months. His only effort at a N2X, two races back, was a bomb. toss

Castle Casanova 10-1
M.Franco/J.Englehart
Has been off for the last four months. “Spotty” workout pattern, with only three works since May first. Toss.

Kazmania 10-1
T.McCarthy/E.Jones
Another coming off a long, four-month rest. Low percentage trainer with zero wins at this layoff. toss

Nueva York 15-1
K.Carmouche/D.Cannizzo
Seven lifetime races with steadily improving Beyers. In his last four races, he’s hit-the-board , with two wins.

Frosted Ice 15-1
D.Davis/J Chapman
Career certainly started off with a bang as a two-year-old — broke his maiden at Saratoga then followed it up with a stakes win at Belmont, the following month. Only three efforts as a three-year-old, all bad, which brings us to his three races in 2020. Not much better. Even if you draw a line thru his last effort at CD, on the turf, his other two efforts won’t get it done here. toss

Pace
, , & should be battling for the lead.

Bets

WIN
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EXACTA
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TRIFECTA
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