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Originally Posted by JustMissed
After all, two guys could very well be standing next to each other by the rail and one guy makes the #2 horse to be 5-2. The guy standing next to him may make that same horse 3-1. If the #2 horse wins and pays $9, both guys make a $7 profit. How could there be more value for one player over the other.
I strongly suspect that "value betting" is just a gimmick some book writer came up with to sell another book and was quickly picked up by the software developers in order to ad another enhancement to their handicapping software.
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How times are you gonna bring this up? The payoff for a single race is obviously the same, but one guy may be able to find MORE PLAYS than the other over time, so he'll make more money. If the 5-2 guy is "right", that means he is "more right" than the 3-1 guy because he would bet the horse AT 3-1 and the other guy would not. If the horse had gone off at 3-1, one guy would have bet and cashed, and the other would not have bet at all.
Look at it this way -- your goal when making an oddlines is to give the eventual winner the lowest fair-odds you can, because the lower the fair odds, the greater the chance that the toteboard odds will exceed that and you'll get to bet on him.
Value betting is not a gimmick -- it is the fundamental mathematical principle of making a profit on any investment, horse-racing or otherwise, that involves anything less than a 100% chance of a guaranteed return of a certain amount. Same thing applies when you buy a stock, or start a business -- pretty much any investment, and all it means is that the potential return must justify the risk. That's it.
