Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I have to think back to how I programmed this. Riders that are almost always favored or second choice are going to have a lower rating most of the time...they have nowhere to go but down.
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It should be possible to tweak the model a little to correct for that.
I'm not saying this is the solution, but if you look at all favorites and determined average finish, then any finish above that would be a positive and any finish below that would be a negative.
You could do the same for 2nd choices, 3rd choices etc..
That way, even if every horse you rode was the favorite, you wouldn't have to win to avoid a negative rating. You'd just have to do average. And you could still get a positive rating if you won more than your fair share.
It you wanted to get crazier you could make adjustments for field size and actual odds.
If you are riding a 2/5 favorite in a 4 horse field that's different from riding a 3-1 favorite in a 12 horse field.
The one things I recall about this kind of thing is that it gets a little tricky to do ranking in Access, which is where I do most of my work. I might have to export to Excel. I think it's a little easier in Excel.
