Quote:
Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing
I'm not comparing apples with oranges. I'm trying to explain, against all odds of you understanding, that whatever the probability of an event occurring, as time goes by the likelihood of that event occurring is higher, even though the probability doesn't change. Hence the coin flip example.
Obviously, no matter what the probability, it happened. At that point, the probability became 100%. As an analogy, if a horse is 100-1 before a race, once it wins the probability becomes 100%. In other words, the probability of an event is only relevant until it happens. Your point about the scientists is totally irrelevant because it happened.
And no matter what the probability of life evolving on earth, it was a higher probability than the Genesis story, especially given the physical evidence within the universe. You'll never believe that, but you have zero, nil, nada zilch evidence for your story except a book that is countered by every measurement of the universe that science has made. It makes as much sense as believing airplanes fly because there is a guy up there with a string holding it up.
We all love that you reference "scientists" without one reference. Are they the same guys who think climate change is a Chinese hoax?
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Halv, I'm late to this, and not challenging per se, only that I'm interested in this:
"Whatever the probability of an event occurring, as time goes by the likelihood of that event occurring is higher, even though the probability doesn't change".
I'm sure I'm missing something, but how does this apply to, say, the Gambler's Fallacy?
