uk Lingfield race 4 11-13-2018
that worked out well
betfair largest lay pool would require a $1 win return of $2.81
the horse went off at $2.20.
I estimate I would collect on a lay bet 80% on the time, my advantage, without adjusting for the various final odds would be 1.25 time the final odds.
2.20x 1.25 = $2.75m my maximum payout to break even
I need to add 1 additional column to the matrix information, that would be, how much to bet on all the horses other than the top pick
in this case the #1 horse won. my return would be $1.35, exceeding my required minimum return
the 1/5 exacta won, paying $27.60 on the dollar, my return would be $3.66.
not certain what my min $1 return for this play is just yet. have not reviewed but 22 races, 11 of which won.. that seems like too high a success rate.
