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Thread: Religion III
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Old 04-19-2019, 11:23 AM   #278
hcap
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Not only homicides and violent crimes worldwide drastically decreasing, but there is some evidence we are living in a relatively peaceful period in terms of war.

https://oefresearch.org/think-peace/...ce-decline-war



To begin, the graph above shows the number of battle deaths per million people (using a moving average, displayed on a logarithmic scale) for wars beginning in each year. Consistent with previous arguments, it does appear that the period since the mid-1980s was more peaceful than average. However, we can also see several other peaceful periods, such as during the Concert of Europe during the first half of the 1800s. Given this variability, it is difficult to see any clear trend.

To more formally analyze whether there might be a trend in war deaths hidden in the graph, I ran several statistical tests, which are described further in the technical appendix. Looking at the overall period, there is no evidence of a decline in interstate war. While it is possible that war has declined since 1945, this decline is matched by increases in earlier periods. Thus, while it is possible that the probability of dying in battle has changed over time, there is little statistical reason to believe that the recent decline will last.

Despite this, I think there may be reasons to hope that the recent more peaceful period may continue. Like Clauset, I have only analyzed interstate conflict. Thus, a decline in civil war may be hiding in the data. In addition, the world is wealthier, more interconnected, and more democratic and has more international institutions than ever—all factors that scholars suggest may promote peace.
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So total depravity is not total
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