Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
In general, in ANY form of gambling, if you are unable to pass/fold sometimes, you are a losing player.
An acquaintance who works in a sports book says the equivalent expression there is "anyone who bets the Super Bowl is a loser".
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That's a good expression. Hadn't heard that one, but it's more true than false.
A good player can sometimes fall in love with a big race like the Belmont, and they see that Justify is a legit favorite and will be an unplayable price, and then their hamster wheel starts turning; "Well maybe I can still get value in a superfecta..."
For me, that thought process is dangerous. You win a few now and then, but you are trying to leverage value from a valueless position by 'out-smarting' the situation.
You start to see action in virtually any race you've handicapped, and you are trying to get in bets as they load into the gate to have something on that idea.
A baseball analogy would be swinging at a low-away slider, because "Well maybe I can still get a piece of the ball and hit a single".
Continuing the baseball analogy, a horseplayer wants to approach the game like Barry Bonds (the approach, not the steroids!
) or a Ted Williams or a Rogers Hornsby... -To patiently wait until a pitch is delivered into your 'happy zone', and then go ahead and stroke your homerun or double. Get a good ball to hit.
Get a good race to hit, a clear easy opportunity that jumps off the page as a significant opinion, and then take a solid approach to get your homerun or double.
The game treats the over-eager player as LeBron or Jordan or Pistol Pete will tell over-eager defenders; "You reach, I teach".
Quite a few slumps come from winning an 'overreach', and then continuing down that path while it's working, until it doesn't.
