Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board


View Single Post
Old 01-27-2012, 09:06 AM   #5
pondman
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: California
Posts: 1,225
I have data going back to Lotus 1-2-3 on a 286, starting in 1985. I moved it to R base in the 90s and then access. I found enough structure to be able to drop the relational side. I believe I'm beyond the stage of finding out what works.

At the same time I married into a California racing family. Fortunately, my wife doesn't train or have a track job, although she does have a small stable. She does get a number of mares from SA. And so over the years dinner coversations has included brawls about "your donkey can get to the half mile pole quick enough."

I've dropped all performance analysis and have started to focus on billionaire/ millionaires looking for a soft spot (because that's where I believe is the consistent money.) And the things they'll do to conceal their moves-- including low percentage or unkown jockeys, changes in distances, changes in surfaces, changes in tracks. Much of my play is based on past training habits of people such as Whittingham, Frankel, and now Baffert, and knowing when the high end is going to send their horses. Most of the clues won't be found in the past performances or speed ratings, especially at the high end. And therefore all of my computer usage is recording results and data. I don't use a computer to make selections. I believe putting a computer in charge will have marginal results at best.
__________________
Wind extinguishes a candle and energizes fire.
Likewise with randomness, uncertainty, chaos: you want to use them, not hide from them. You want to be fire and wish for wind. -- Antifragile, Nassim Taleb

Last edited by pondman; 01-27-2012 at 09:13 AM.
pondman is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
 
» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:22 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.