Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
love it. 
and then there is kind of a 'game theory' part to trying to 'scoop the pool' of these 'jackpot' rules wagers.
The value of the most unpopular long shots of the sequence is significantly affected by whether they figure to be uncovered (or 'scoopable'). |
Yep, for sure. To be honest, I don't have the bankroll to bet the pools that have jackpots, so I haven't given it a ton of thought.
One way that comes to mind that doesn't include thinking about the game theory part is take whatever your market estimated payoff for a combination is and convert it to an implied probability. Then multiply that implied probability by the pool total to get the total expected $ wagered on a given combination. If the expected $ wagered is less than the minimum bet size, you could adjust the payoff to be the entire pool + the jackpot. A simple approach to allow for the fact that people will be hunting for bombs would be to increase the desired minimum expected $ wagered below which you assume the entire pool will be scooped.
I'm sure there's a more scientific approach, though
