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Ray. The A/E is the actual wins / expected wins stat. This compensates for different prices and is a good indicator of valueness.
The A/E is not affected by field size because usually the bigger the field size the bigger the odds etc.
But the question here is why are favs still hitting 32% when field sizes are getting smaller?
Assume field sizes shrink even further. What if there were only 5 runners per race. Would it not be strange if favs still hit 32%?
Your point about the public getting smarter. Surely this would be reflected in the prices? So back to the A/E. If the public got smarter then they would find more winners. The prices of those winners should thus be lower and we should see a reduction A/E. But in the case of favourites it has remained a consistent 0.93 over the past 10 years.
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