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Thread: SA Race 4 12/31
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Old 12-31-2017, 05:42 PM   #2
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
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Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
A few things...


It was a terrible morning line. The points added up way to high. Just adjusting for the overage knocked the winner down to below 3-1.

Using the daily double probables with the top three choices from the prior race projected odds of 1.2, 0.5, and 0.6.

The P3 will pay projected odds of 1.2.

If you average those four, you get about 0.9. The info was there, this horse was always going to take a lot of money. This was discussed somewhere, I guess the late odds changes thread. It generally works and is better than just hoping your odds won't drop.
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