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Well, I calculate it similarily to Mike Pizzola only my percentages are lower particularly in route races. I use my pace analysis and in terms you really have to judge it on a race to race basis. I think when you read past performances, one of my angles has been to keep an eye on what horses go off at in their last race connections or not. I have seen it many times where it does not matter what the classification of the race is, a long short or a good overlay will and the public gets stupid and figures that the horse is going to come right back and win as the fav. More times than not it does not happen. So it is a % thing. As well, when you look at a race particularly a stakes race yesterday at Parx. The two choices #7 Far Mo Power had just upset in his stakes race at 13-1 although disqualified and the # 9 Riden with Biden was coming off an 8-1 Upset in the Greenwood Derby on Philly Derby Day and went wire to wire at 1 1/2. So to me the race had speed and they had bad posts. An owner, a trainer of the #1 were stepping up and high odds and looking to get a pay day with a cheaper horse. It is smart business, the pace line I chose in his mile route his last race showed that he was getting him ready for this type of race. It is just not a number but also a logical deduction. The horse was ranked in my analysis best of the worse only because of energy dist. and the fact the other two in my top three were the # 7 and the # 9
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