Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I try to do that also. I'm less worried about some horse that got loose in a soft pace last time if I've already seen him run well in a highly competitive hot paced race loaded with quality. Sometimes those horses can actually be pretty good value because so many people will downgrade the horse off the soft trip, but sometimes Dr. Fager is going to get a soft trip and he'll still be Dr. Fager in the next race.
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I find that MORE often players do NOT downgrade your theoretical front-runner and, previous corkers vs hard, competitive fractions notwithstanding, the soft set-up does indeed mask deterioration. In any case, I would watch and REwatch the slow-paced win, while combing for ANY sign of willingness to flinch.
Keeping in mind, of course, that our subject thoroughbred fits the specific criteria of having successfully battled hard splits, and shows a more recent victory characterized by lack of early pressure.
You and I have been here before on this topic. In the end, of course, specific cases would boil down to value and public perception. But I have seen sooooo many well-accomplished speeds-or at least front-runners in sharp form-obtain soft, loose leads, appear vulnerable and somewhat struggling lower turn, but then fatten the margin after switching leads. Those performances can be tough to assess.
