Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
Curious...
Why would you limit yourself to just 4 races?
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Keep in mind, this is an automated metric.
I did some studies years back and found that if I went back past a certain point the incremental information added almost no predictive value at all.
The first thing I do when I handicap is glance at my automated metrics for running styles, pace projections, and profiles for that track/surface/distance to get a feel for what I am dealing with.
Then I start digging into details manually. While there may be some exceptions where I think information further back is relevant, I wasn't going to code for an almost endless number of possibilities just to get a summary metric a little more accurate. I'm counting on myself to see the exceptions to the rules later. The metrics are just for a quick summary and to test concepts. I'm very big on proving that what I "think" is actually true by actually testing it.
