Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I'm fairly convinced measuring "energy" and the demands of the race/distance/surface is the way, light, and truth, but I'm less sure the commonly used formulas are complete and getting it right (not that I have a better formula).
I think there's another component to this.
Ex.
Three horses can run 4F in 45 comfortably and then finish 6F in 1:10.
If they are pressed to 44 3/5, they may not react the same way.
One may falter and finish in 1:10 3/5
One may have enough energy in reserve to run 1:10 anyway, but start cracking at 44 2/5 and slow down to 1:10 2/5.
One may have had so much in reserve the faster pace will carry it to 109 4/5, but start cracking at 44 1/5 and run 110 2/5.
I think this is the kind of stuff that gets exposed as horses move up and down the class ladder and face tougher or softer trips within a race.
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One of my strategies for exposing this is to have preference for competitive lines. If a horse wins or loses by a wide margin, that line doesn't reveal much.
